Part 1: Compute Forward Variable for Hidden Markov Models

Compute the forward variable alpha for the observation sequence O=(0,1,0,2,0,1,0) given the HMM (without renormalization).

Part 1A: Forward Variable for HMM with Two States

The HMM for Part 1A is specified below: 

A = [[0.66, 0.34],
    [1, 0]]
B = [[0.5, 0.25, 0.25],
    [0.1, 0.1, 0.8]]
pi = [0.8, 0.2]

Result
0.40, ?.????, 0.030230, 0.00559, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????
0.02, 0.0136, ?.??????, 0.00822, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.000035
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 1B: Forward Variable for HMM with Three States

The HMM for Part 1B is specified below: 

A = [[0.8, 0.1, 0.1],
     [0.4, 0.2, 0.4],
     [0, 0.3, 0.7]]
B = [[0.66, 0.34, 0],
     [0, 0, 1],
     [0.5, 0.4, 0.1]]
pi = [0.6, 0, 0.4]
Result
0.396, 0.107712, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.003919, 0.001066, ?.??????
0.000, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????
0.200, 0.071840, 0.030530, ?.??????, 0.003916, ?.??????, 0.000492
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

[HCI Implementation Credit] Part 1C: Forward Algorithm with Renormalization

Using the same HMM and the same observation sequence as in Part 1B, compute the forward variable alpha with renormalization and also give the renormalization coefficients c for each time slice of the alpha variable.
Your answers should be precise to within at least 6 decimal digits. This link may help.

Result
Renormalized alpha:
0.664430, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.500200, ?.??????, ?.??????
0.000000, 0.000000, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.000000, ?.??????
?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.154160, ?.??????, 0.540368, 0.466385

Renormalization coefficients c:
1.677852, ?.??????, 2.054335, ?.??????, 2.240014, ?.??????, ?.??????
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 2: Compute Backward Variable for Hidden Markov Models

Compute the backward variable beta for the observation sequence O=(0,1,0,2,0,1,0) given the HMM (without renormalization).

Part 2A: Backward Variable for HMM with Two States

The HMM for Part 2A is identical to the HMM for Part 1A.

Result
?.??????, ?.??????, 0.015187, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.364, 1.0
0.001314, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.038530, ?.??????, ?.???, ?.?
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 2B: Backward Variable for HMM with Three States

The HMM for Part 2B is identical to the HMM for Part 1B.

Result
?.??????, ?.??????, 0.006823, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.???, ?.?
0.001862, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.464, ?.?
0.002140, ?.??????, ?.??????, 0.034300, ?.??????, ?.???, ?.?
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 3: Viterbi Algorithm

Find the most probable state sequence for the observation sequence O=(0,1,0,2,0,1,0) given the HMM using the Viterbi algorithm.

In this problem, both the indices of observation symbols and the state indices are assumed to be zero-based, i.e., the first row of A corresponds to state 0, second row of A corresponds to state 1 and so forth. This is also true for the indexing of the elements of pi. Similarly, the first column of B corresponds to observation symbol 0, the second column of B corresponds to observation symbol 1, and so on.

Part 3A: Viterbi Algorithm for HMM with Two States

The HMM for Part 3A is identical to the HMM for Part 1A.

Result
?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?, ?
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 3B: Viterbi Algorithm for HMM with Three States

The HMM for Part 3B is identical to the HMM for Part 1B.

Result
2, ?, ?, 1, ?, ?, ?
Link to your Excel file or the description of your approach for solving the problem.

Part 4: Complete the First Project Proposal Peer Review

The peer review is submitted separately in Canvas.

Part 5: Complete the Second Project Proposal Peer Review

The peer review is submitted separately in Canvas.

Part 6: Complete the Third Project Proposal Peer Review

The peer review is submitted separately in Canvas.